The scandal in ukrainian politics with ex georgian
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Isn’t it interesting how at times decisions are made with a total confidence in their correctness and turning as incredible failures revealing it was the worst choice taken? There are numerous political errors in history of politics and decision-making, nevertheless , when it comes to these kinds of country while Ukraine, I sometimes possess a feeling that its politics is like a great ever-lasting total blunder. For this reason , I chose the topic of the recent scandal in Ukrainian national politics concerning ex-Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, whom also was appointed as a governor of Ukraine Odesa region in 2015-2016.
The personal background of Mr Saakashvili is quite impressive. Once coming to Ukraine after the Maidan Revolution he was rather welcomed and well-known for his incredible modification of Atlanta from a post-Soviet underdeveloped state towards the fast-developing point out with friendly relations while using West, deprived of file corruption error as way of doing governmental policies. It was not just a secret that he received support of the US and its advisors in his activity, nevertheless Ukrainians after 2014 had been certainly West-oriented so had nothing against that. Ex-Georgian President came up as a Poroshenko supporter and was actually granted the Ukrainian citizenship to become legal governor by Ukrainian President. Now, so what happened that by simply December 2017 Mr Saakashvili was not only left like a stateless person, but also was desired by the national police of Ukraine and Georgia?
To describe that Now i am applying the rational Professional model to start with. So when ever Petro Poroshenko became a President he was legally elected and promoted path “to the West”. On the suggestion of the ALL OF US he invited Saakashvili (Western support was very important), gave him the Ukrainian citizenship and appointed him to a good position, precisely the Governor of Odesa region (touristic place on the South of Ukraine near the sea). So via 2015 Mr Saakashvili was providing his policy in the area similar to the one he do in Atlanta and fundamentally, the idea was “if this individual could enhance Georgia, this individual could help to achieve that in Ukraine as well”. Saakashvili was rather supported as a new politician although not without suspicion. The obvious query was in in whose interest he can playing. To start with the people thought that he was in the interest of Poroshenko, others just failed to trust him and thought of him as a “dark horse”. So you will discover two viewpoints: Mr Director Poroshenko and Mr Saakashvili. The logic of the former was that he invites Saakashvili, gets the approval from the US, publicly filing the new authorities is operating towards the democratization and unifying with the Western (EU in particular) and Mr Saakashvili can you need to be there, definately not Kyiv, doing good job but not messing around with all the president. Through the perspective of Mr ex-Georgian President having been given an additional chance. Staying known for an admirable job in his individual country and then being outcasted on personal land he previously a chance to confirm himself one more time. He received the nationality which granted him a standing in Ukraine and of course produced an image of “fighter against corruption”. Right now the turning point comes once Saakashvili instantly comes into lumination and declares that Poroshenko is a thief, liar, even worse than prior criminal director, that he is the head of most corruption in Ukraine and that he (Saakashvili) can be from now on a fighter against that.
The framework at that time is characterized by tremendously high sociable dissatisfaction with all the government (only 5% of population reinforced Poroshenko) and therefore became a perfect environment to get growing of such a leader as Saakashvili. Along with his image this individual created a number “which is merely one resistance able to stand against the legal president”. What were the logic as well as the options of Poroshenko to respond?
1 . Saakashvili doesn’t get public support, as they is a “dark horse” and individuals won’t trust him enough to follow Ã Poroshenko can feel secure and then quickly shut “the rebel” up and remove him with no problems.
2 . Saakashvili gets the support of the population and works for subsequent presidential polls (autumn 2018) in Ukraine with a opportunity to be elected Ã Poroshenko has to clean up all his business and make almost all of his last year + drive more support via Western world.
3. Saakashvili plays by himself Ã not any threat, carrying on with very own business.
Sudden menace of Saakashvili surprises the federal government and inspite of assuming that he will probably not get the support in the people, Poroshenko decides to deprive the opponent with the citizenship meaning that he will not need the legal basis of legal stay in the region.
Now from my point of view almost all further event and sudden outcomes possess only one idea from the side of Mister Saakashvili. If we think of his position for the minute we will have one very clear point standing up behind most his activity: he merely has nothing to lose. Even if there is anyone behind him and he could be just a marionette or whether he made a decision to regain his status and turn into president in Ukraine, or perhaps if he’s just another political clown, his logic is completely the following: he has not lose. Having been abandoned by his own country, he was then forgotten from Ukraine by the Chief executive and fled. So via his point of view any of his decisions were rational: to get up once again.
This individual flees and in 2017 threatens president Poroshenko that he will probably be back to Ukraine with millions of proponents and that he goes from the Polish-Ukrainian border without one would manage to stop him. The protéger of Mister President, yet , was underestimating Saakashvili when ever his followers from European Ukraine literally did bring him throughout the border and no border authorities dared in order to avoid them. Understanding his mistake President has to change the strategy and now come up with idea how to get rid of ex-governor. And here the funny component starts: western countries mainly dissatisfied with Ukrainian authorities policies current time (precisely the case with anti-corruption panel and not operating in accordance with the agreed course to Europeanization) did not support Poroshenko’s steps to detain Saakashvili great total deprival of citizenship, demanding the best of ex-Georgian President to appeal inside the court.
Decision-making of Mr Poroshenko becomes even more complicated after unsuccessful police arrest of Saakashvili when his supporters virtually stopped the national law enforcement and required him out of the car. Saakashvili was accused of obtaining money to get his actions from the criminal gang with the former chief executive who was overthrown with the Maidan Revolution and basically the accusations was not released until the day time in the the courtroom. The whole condition looked extremely stupid and Ukrainian political figures could not produce their ideas, could not (and still cannot) find evidence of the accusations and thus delayed the Saakashvili case towards the new 2018 year.
Now what could have been reasonable (rational) is always to see Poroshenko trying to continue to be a President till legal elections, Saakashvili proving his “dedication to Ukrainian nation” (as he was singing Ukrainian anthem and shouting Ukrainian slogans to impeach Director for the liberty of Ukrainians) and then on the elections Saakashvili would try to run pertaining to Presidency. However , the greatest error appeared to be on the point when ever Saakashvili publicly announced that he is not going to work for obama administration and only desires to fight the corruption. Increase. Ukrainians happen to be confused.
Absolutely obvious that Mikheil did desire to run intended for elections that was fundamentally where his ambitions were going to, but he would not count well all possible consequences of his “show” in Ukraine. Moreover, due to the fact that he might be just supported by European part of Ukraine which probably would not necessarily be enough to earn. In addition , he can now outstanding a stateless person (while arguing starvation of Ukrainian citizenship till April 2018) with accusation of legal activities in both Ukraine and Atlanta (which are obviously fake).
So what is up coming? The greatest final result of such a mistake is complete confusion in Ukrainian politics with no predictions for the future. Nevertheless , in my opinion, for the reason that accusations against Saakashvili are fake (which no doubt that they are) your decision of the the courtroom will be delayed as long as possible so that he does not have excessive space and possibility to use it. Poroshenko does not have any alternative option, since if this individual confirms the accusations against Mikheil the newest Maidan is highly possible, which will also some of foreign experts were stressing in last several month. Letting him go is actually dangerous while Saakashvili is able to fire up the people for further demand of impeachment of Poroshenko. So what can be left is usually gaining period until he comes up with better decision.
Meanwhile, it seems to me there exists another significant blunder here and it’s Saakashvili’s overestimation of himself. He previously a good situation of the Texas chief of Odesa region, this individual wanted even more, he was massively supported, experienced he has some power and authority and feels that is certainly more than enough. This individual of course were required to say this individual won’t operate for polls to decrease the tension from Poroshenko and the authorities but he still feels if this individual has not lose he will go for it and win this. However , Ukraine is much bigger than Atlanta. It is a lot more socially divided than Georgia and, furthermore, it is in war.
So to sum up, I classify the case of Saakashvili in Ukraine as being a major politics blunder and great model of “Irrational Actor”. And, plainly, I am looking forward to verify that my interpretation of events turns out to be correct and what will be the final results of the complete story.
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